Saturday 18 May 2024

Special Update 18/5/2024 Stocks In Wonderland. Gold And Silver Rising.

Baltic Dry Index. 1844 +27 Brent Crude 83.98

Spot Gold 2415 U S 2 Year Yield 4.83 +0.05

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

The stock casinos, with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

While many stock casinos are at or close to all time highs, everything I see in the alternate universe, aka the real economy, suggests to me a large part of consumers are spent out.

In brief, starting with China. "Real estate investment steepened its pace of decline, and was down 9.8% year-on-year for the first four months of 2024." But property in China is in year four of decline.

Today's LIR covers China's latest "historic" turn around plan announced yesterday. Great sounding words and intentions but no details on where the trillion dollars worth of Yuan is to come from. They are, according to the scant details out so far, putting up an additional 42 billion dollars worth of Yuan, but it’s just a drop in the bucket needed.

In the USA, UK, Germany and much of Europe, though not Norway, EVs are piling up unsold. No surprise there given their incendiary bomb risk of EVs, but now ICE new and used cars are starting to pile up too. Vehicle production is starting to be cutback. Workers are starting to be laid off, though not in Germany where no one can ever be laid off, simply pensioned off.

In my local area, two used car dealers have closed this year and while that's not necessarily relevant, I suspect that it is. Western man is motor man in good times and all but the worst of times. Most like me, a product of the 50s, 60s and 70s onwards, live "never run if you can walk, never walk if you can ride."

Then there are the UK and EU supermarket price wars, something that only happens when consumers are largely spent out of cash and credit, including buy now pay later debt traps.

I'll end with rising credit card, auto loan, and real estate delinquencies, never a sign of a thriving economy though often a sign of good times rolling over into hard times.

While a G-7 recession is unlikely in a US presidential election year, though not impossible, the next US President, whoever it is, has to start bringing down the rate that the USA is running up new debt. Roughly an unsustainable trillion dollars every hundred days. That’s about ten billion dollars a day. Trouble ahead in 2025.

Dow closes at record high above 40,000 to cinch a five-week winning streak

UPDATED FRI, MAY 17 2024 4:21 PM EDT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday above the key 40,000 level for the first time in history, a day after hitting that benchmark in the previous trading session.

The 30-stock average rose 134.21 points, or 0.34%, to 40,003.59. The S&P 500 inched up 6.17 points, or 0.12%, to 5,303.27, while Nasdaq Composite ended down 12.35 points, or 0.07%, at 16,685.97.

Shares of Walmart and Caterpillar, both trading 1% higher, led the Dow. Chubb and Valero Energy, respectively up more than 3% and 4%, were the biggest gainers in the S&P 500.

Stocks finished the week strong, with the Dow up 1.2% to notch its fifth straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 1.5% and 2.1% week to date, cinching their longest winning streak since February.

On Thursday, the Dow reached an intraday high of 40,051.05, above the psychologically important 40,000 level, before pulling back to end the day down 0.1%.

his week’s ascent has helped propel the three indexes into positive territory for the second quarter despite a tough start. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now each up more than 11% in 2024, while the Dow has climbed more than 6% this year.

While concerns over the durability of the current rally have been voiced by some investors, Tom Hainlin believes that the combination of economic growth and decelerating inflation is the perfect catalyst.

“That’s a fairly optimistic setup for at least the near future here in 2024,” the senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management told CNBC. “We appreciate that valuation is a little high relative to history, but so is earnings growth and so is earnings stability.”

Stock market news for May 17, 2024: Dow sets record close above 40,000 (cnbc.com)

European markets close slightly lower after snapping nine-day winning streak

UPDATED FRI, MAY 17 2024 11:55 AM EDT

European markets slipped again on Friday after snapping a nine-day winning streak in the previous session, as earnings weighed on positive sentiment.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.13% lower, with most sectors trading in negative territory. Utilities stocks fell 0.9%, while basic resources added 1.4%.

Shares of Richemont climbed 5.3%, paring gains slightly from earlier in the session, after the Swiss luxury goods firm said full-year sales rose 3% to an all-time high even as fourth-quarter sales were dragged lower by weaker demand in Asia-Pacific.

U.S. stocks were little changed after the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly touched the key 40,000 milestone for the first time.

In Asia-Pacific, markets largely fell Friday, as investors assessed key China data to gauge the state of the world’s second-largest economy.

European markets live updates: Earnings, stocks, news and data (cnbc.com)

ECB board member reportedly cautions against back-to-back rate cuts, cites ‘risk of easing prematurely’

PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 17 2024 1:49 AM EDT

European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel warned against back-to-back rate cuts amid lingering inflation risks, Nikkei reported Friday, as the central bank gears for its June meeting amid expectations of a rate cut.

While a rate cut in June could be warranted depending on incoming data and projections, things are less certain beyond that, Schnabel told Nikkei.

The European Central Bank held interest rates at a record high for the fifth consecutive meeting last month, but is expected to cut it to 3.75% from the current 4% at its next meeting.

“The path beyond June is much more uncertain. Recent data have confirmed that the last mile of disinflation is the most difficult,” Schnabel said, adding that a rate cut in July does not seem justified.

“After so many years of very high inflation and with inflation risks still being tilted to the upside, a front-loading of the easing process would come with a risk of easing prematurely,” the ECB board member added.

Eurozone core inflation dropped in April to 2.7% from 2.9%. The ECB has set an inflation target of 2%.

Markets are also currently facing “very high uncertainty,” Schnabel noted, highlighting that market participants have shifted to pricing in around three rate cuts now from six at the beginning of the year.

Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty amid a slew of elections worldwide this year also pose risks to euro area financial stability, the ECB said in a recent financial stability review.

ECB board member Schnabel cautions against back-to-back rate cuts (cnbc.com)

Finally, in food price inflation news, it’s getting late in the year to expect much relief in 2024. Our global weather this year hasn’t been helpful from Argentina to Brazil, the USA to northern Europe and on to Russia, India and a large part of China.

Catastrophic flood destruction in Brazil could worsen with more rain on the way

Extreme flooding in Brazil over the last several weeks may be made worse by additional rainfall late this week.

By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior weather editor

Published May 15, 2024 7:55 PM BST | Updated May 16, 2024 3:30 PM BST

AccuWeather meteorologists say that massive flooding that has plagued southern Brazil for weeks could worsen as additional storms enter the flood-ravaged area.

Heavy rain has repeatedly doused southern Brazil and Uruguay since late April, causing both short-term creek and long-term river flooding.

The death toll has risen to 149, with 124 still missing, ABC News reported Tuesday.

Over 30,000 soldiers and police have been deployed to rescue nearly 70,000 people and 10,000 animals, but the spread of disinformation is slowing rescue and recovery, according to the Associated Press.

A flood at the beginning of May devastated the city of Rio Grande do Sul when the Taquari River reached a new 150-year record height -- by 12 feet (4 meters). MetSul Meteorologia, a weather media organization in Brazil, said that in 30 years of covering weather, they had never observed such catastrophic destruction.

Unfortunately, more rain is in the forecast next week.

"A slow-moving cold front will drift from Uruguay to Rio Grande Do Sul, Brazil next week, Wednesday and Thursday, but will stall on Friday with additional rain, some heavy, and thunderstorms across the region." AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls explained.

Nicholls added that widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches (mm) is likely in northern Rio Grande do Sul into Santa Catarina next Thursday afternoon and Friday. This could quickly become a problem in the Porto Alegre area, where the airport flooded last week. Localized amounts could reach 8 inches. Porto Alegre, Brazil reported 13.03 inches (331 mm) of rain in four days, more than their historical average rainfall for all of May in the city of 4.53 inches.

Catastrophic flood destruction in Brazil could worsen with more rain on the way (accuweather.com)

Corn emergence trails average pace in one third of top producing states

Six top corn-producing states are behind their respective five-year averages for corn emergence.

By Mariah Squire Published on May 15, 2024

USDA reported Monday that of the 18 top corn-producing states in the country, six have fallen behind their respective five-year average pace for corn emergence. One farmer in Tennessee, the state furthest behind in corn emergence as well as corn planted, offers an interesting take on why.

Tennessee

According to USDA’s report for the week ending May 12, Tennessee is the furthest behind its five-year average for corn emergence. At 45%, the state’s corn emergence is 7 percentage points behind the five-year average and down 13 points from last year at this time. At first glance, an explanation may be that just 73% of the state’s expected corn is in the ground. That is 5 percentage points behind the five-year average and 12 points behind last year at this time.

Rain showers affecting much of the state two weeks ago and heavy rainfall across the state last week have clearly taken a toll. USDA said that for the week ending May 12, the subsoil moisture condition was 27% surplus and the topsoil moisture condition was 35% surplus. Such excess rain drastically impacted the number of days suitable for fieldwork across the state.

Corn emergence trails average pace in one third of top producing states (agriculture.com)

‘Poorly timed extremes’ to blame for deteriorating winter wheat in one top growing state

A dry fall, a wet winter, and late freezes have all led to the decline of winter wheat in Kansas.

By Charmayne Hefley Updated on May 15, 2024

For the fifth consecutive week, winter wheat in Kansas is the worst in the nation. The state’s winter wheat crop continues to decline in quality, with 35% of the crop in poor/very poor shape, according to the USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending May 12.

Varying degrees of extreme weather conditions have been a primary factor for the decline of the state’s winter wheat crop conditions this year. Dry conditions in the fall, wet conditions in the winter, and late freezes in the spring have all impacted the crop.

Kansas winter wheat progress and condition

USDA rated Kansas winter wheat 13% very poor, 22% poor, 34% fair, 28% good, and 3% excellent the week ending May 12. This is a slight decline from the previous week when 31% of the state’s crop was rated poor/very poor.

‘Poorly timed extremes’ to blame for deteriorating winter wheat in one top growing state (agriculture.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

China, too little, too late?

China unveils 'historic' steps to stabilise crisis-hit property sector

By Liangping Gao and Clare Jim May 17, 2024 8:58 AM GMT+1

BEIJING/HONG KONG, May 17 (Reuters) - China on Friday announced "historic" steps to stabilise the crisis-hit property sector, allowing local governments to buy "some" apartments, relaxing mortgage rules and pledging to deliver unfinished homes.

Investors hoped the measures marked the beginning of more decisive government intervention to compensate for waning demand for both new and old apartments, slow down falling prices, and reduce a growing stock of unsold homes.

Analysts have long called for the government to step in with its own purchases to prop up a sector which at its peak accounted for a fifth of GDP and remains a major drag on the world's second-biggest economy.

Since the property market began its steep downturn in 2021, a string of developers have defaulted, leaving scores of idle construction sites behind, and sapping confidence in what had for decades been the preferred savings instrument for the Chinese population.

China Real Estate Newspaper, a publication managed by the housing ministry, said the "heavyweight policies" marked "a significant historic moment" for the property sector.

"It's a positive and encouraging direction, that the governments are stepping in to buy housing inventory," said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

"But in order to evaluate how powerful the impact will be, the key questions are who will be funding the purchase and how much they'll fund in the end."

After waves of support measures over the past two years failed to put a floor under the property sector, Vice Premier He Lifeng told an online meeting with other authorities that municipal governments can buy "some" homes at "reasonable" prices.

The homes would be used to provide affordable housing, He said, without giving a timeline or a target for the purchases, nor detailing how they would be funded. He also said local governments, already some $9 trillion in debt, can repurchase land sold to developers, and promised that authorities will "fight hard" to complete stalled projects.

---- Goldman Sachs estimates saleable housing inventory at 13.5 trillion yuan ($1.87 trillion) at the end of 2023 and because some of their construction had not been finished, it would require 5 trillion yuan of capital investment to complete them.

There were 395 million square metres (4.25 billion square feet) of new housing for sale in January-March, up 24% year-on-year, the latest official data show.

Analysts at Tianfeng Securities estimate it will cost around $1 trillion to buy the entire stock.

China unveils 'historic' steps to stabilise crisis-hit property sector | Reuters

China pledges $42 billion in a slew of measures to support the struggling property sector

PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 17 2024 6:49 AM EDT

BEIJING — Chinese authorities on Friday pledged new support for state-owned enterprises to enable them to buy unsold apartments, in an effort that could help developers get more funding to finish construction on pre-sold properties.

These and other measures announced Friday marked Beijing’s latest efforts to address issues in the massive real estate sector.

“I think it is encouraging that the policy is taking a turn of direction trying to support the housing market,” said Zhu Ning, a professor of finance at Tsinghua University and author of the book “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”

People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Tao Ling told reporters at a briefing Friday the central bank would provide 300 billion yuan ($42.25 billion) to financial institutions to lend to local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) so they can buy unsold apartments that have already been built.

China pledges billions in measures to support struggling property sector (cnbc.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

More problems from the mRNA Covid vaccines. Fatal Post COVID mRNA-Vaccine Associated Cerebral Ischemia. Approx. 18 minutes.

Stroke

Stroke (youtube.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Hmm, is/has a new fire hazard developing/developed?

Solar panel fire at Sydney Olympic Park Aquatic Centre

By Ellie Busby May 13, 2024

More than 2,500 people have been safely evacuated from Sydney Olympic Park Aquatic Centre in Homebush following a solar panel fire this afternoon.

Six appliances and 24 Fire and Rescue NSW (FRNSW) firefighters responded to the incident in Shane Gould Avenue at 12.15pm after reports of black smoke issuing from the building.

Upon investigation, crews found a working fire in the solar panels on the roof of the sporting facility.

Firefighters quickly got to work and utilised a ladder platform to attack the flames. The blaze was contained within approximately 45 minutes.

A swimming carnival was in progress at the centre at the time of the incident however all people were evacuated safely and there were no reported injuries.

Investigations are underway to determine the cause of the fire.

Solar panel fire at Sydney Olympic Park Aquatic Centre - Parra News

Next, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi season in major keys. Vivaldi at his best. Approx. 9 minutes.

A. Vivaldi: RV 555 / Concerto con molti istromenti in C major / Ensemble Matheus

A. Vivaldi: RV 555 / Concerto con molti istromenti in C major / Ensemble Matheus (youtube.com)

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.

THE CHOSEN ONE || Magnus Carlsen vs Alireza Firouzja || GRAND FINAL Champions Chess Tour (2024)

THE CHOSEN ONE || Magnus Carlsen vs Alireza Firouzja || GRAND FINAL Champions Chess Tour (2024) (youtube.com)

This weekend’s final YouTube diversions. And the EV winner is? Approx. 8 minutes and 6 minutes.

Toyota’s Skepticism Towards EVs is paying off BIG TIME!

Toyota’s Skepticism Towards EVs is paying off BIG TIME! (youtube.com)

BYD = Burn Your DEALERSHIP! Entire BYD showroom DESTROYED by fire | MGUY Australia

BYD = Burn Your DEALERSHIP! Entire BYD showroom DESTROYED by fire | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)

“It would be so nice if something made sense for a change.”

Fed Chairman Powell, with apologies to to Lewis Carroll and Alice

Friday 17 May 2024

Stocks, Are We There Yet? The Blow Off Top? Rising Delinquencies.

Baltic Dry Index. 1817 -72 Brent Crude 83.52

Spot Gold 2380 US 2 Year Yield 4.78 +0.05

Sell in May, go away, don’t come back till Labor Day.

Wall Street adage.

Though that old Wall Street adage hasn't been operative since “Bubbles” Greenspan ushered in the era of Wall Street bailouts by the US central bank, the current stock casinos bubbles reaching new highs, as everyone front runs the one way street of US and other central bank interest rates cut, make that old Wall Street adage especially attractive this year.

I mean, in the stock casinos, what could possibly go wrong? Plus there’s another couple of percent to grab out the stock casino bubbles, right?

Dow closes lower Thursday after briefly topping 40,000 for first time: Live updates

UPDATED THU, MAY 16 2024 4:49 PM EDT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly lower Thursday after briefly jumping above 40,000 for the first time.

At its high of the day, the blue-chip average reached 40,051.05, the culmination of a bull market that began in October 2022. The index had neared the 40,000 mark earlier this year before a slight April pullback on worries about high interest rates knocked it back down. The rally was rekindled in May on the back of strong earnings and some soft inflation readings.

Ultimately, the 30-stock Dow ended the day down 38.62 points, or 0.1%, closing at 39,869.38. The S&P 500 fell 0.21%, closing at 5,297.10. The Nasdaq Composite finished the day lower by 0.26%, ending at 16,698.32.

During the session, the broader market index also climbed to a new record after closing above the 5,300 level for the first time ever on Wednesday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit an all-time high. The Dow has climbed nearly 6% in 2024, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up 11% each.

“This achievement is a testament to the powers of capital formation, innovation, profit growth and economic resilience,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. “The recent technical momentum and fundamental strengths, including earnings and interest rates, suggest further near-term gains.”

It was Walmart that led the Dow’s charge above 40,000 as the world’s biggest retailer popped nearly 7% on strong fiscal first-quarter results. Walmart is now up 21% in 2024.

Stock market news for May 16, 2024: Dow 40,000 (cnbc.com)

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as investors assess key economic data from China

UPDATED FRI, MAY 17 2024 12:40 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Friday, as investors assessed key China data to gauge the state of the world’s second-largest economy.

Data from China showed retail sales rose by 2.3% in April from a year earlier. The reading was less than the 3.8% increase forecast by a Reuters poll, and slower than the 3.1% pace reported in March.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index fell 0.20% after the data.

Investors also assessed data from Singapore, which showed non-oil domestic exports in April declined by 9.3%, slower than the preceding month.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.36%, while the broad-based Topix reversed early declines to add 0.26%.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.93% after the country’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.8% in April, while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 1.58%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.71%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.29%.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly lower, after briefly jumping above 40,000 for the first time.

The blue-chip index hit a high of 40,051.05. It had neared the 40,000 mark earlier this year before a slight April pullback on worries over high interest rates.

During the session, the S&P 500 also climbed to a new record after closing above the 5,300 level for the first time ever on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq also hit an all-time high.

The 30-stock Dow ended the day down 0.1% at 39,869.38. The S&P 500 fell 0.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite finished the day 0.26% lower.

Asia markets: China retail sales, unemployment, industrial production (cnbc.com)

Dow futures are little changed after blue-chip average touches 40,000 for first time: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, MAY 17 2024 8:07 PM EDT

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near flat Thursday night, after the preceding session brought much fanfare, with the blue-chip average briefly touching the key 40,000 milestone for the first time.

Futures connected to the 30-stock index added just 8 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also both traded near their flatlines.

While it was a modestly down day for the three major averages, there was no shortage of excitement among market participants. The Dow reached an intraday high of 40,051.05, above the psychologically important 40,000 level, before pulling back to end the day down 0.1%.

“The Dow’s remarkable rise has exceeded many expectations, including my own, but our perspective remains unchanged,” said Todd Morgan, chairman at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “Through wars, recessions, elections, impeachments, financial crises and on and on, investing for the long term in high-quality stocks is the key to building wealth.”

The broad S&P 500 retreated about 0.2% on Thursday after breaking above the closely watched 5,300 level for the first time a day prior. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite finished Thursday’s session down nearly 0.3% after also reaching an all-time high.

These milestones come amid hopes that rates have peaked, according to Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. Continued optimism around artificial intelligence and corporate earnings growth also helped push the market into these uncharted waters, he added.

Despite the weak end to Thursday’s session, the indexes are on track to end the week with gains. The Nasdaq Composite is leading the way with a 2.2% advance, followed by the S&P 500′s 1.4% rise. The Dow is tracking to close the week 0.9% higher.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Affluent consumers are creating a ‘bubble’ at Walmart, warns retailer’s former U.S. CEO Bill Simon

PUBLISHED THU, MAY 16 2024 7:57 PM EDT

Higher-income consumers may be creating a frothy situation at Walmart.

Even though affluent shoppers helped drive the retailer’s latest beat on quarterly results, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns they’ll be hard to keep.

“The Walmart experience is better than it used to be, but it’s still not a premium experience. Walmart is built on convenience, cost and assortment. Not on service,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday. “As the economic challenges abate ... service will become more important than convenience and price. And, we’ll see a shift back of some of the consumers. That’s the bubble.”

His warning comes with Walmart stock hitting all-time highs going back to August 1972, when it began trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares surged almost 7% on Thursday after the discount retailer’s fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue beat estimates. Walmart reported high-income consumers helped drive profits particularly in its grocery business.

“The challenge is that the tail winds that have come from food inflation that have pushed Walmart along will reverse eventually,” said Simon, who sits on the boards of Darden Restaurants and Hanesbrands

Last October on “Fast Money,” Simon warned bargains were losing their magic because consumers were starting to buckle for the first time in a decade. His call at the time applied to lower-income consumers.

Now, Simon contends higher-income consumers going to Walmart isn’t good news for the broader economy.

“When money is tight, people react — even high-end consumers react,” he said.

Despite his bubble warning, Simon thinks Walmart is a “great investment” over the next 12 months.

“As long as there’s inflation and those tail winds that come from particularly from food inflation, more traffic will come to the Walmart store,” said Simon.

Walmart bubble due to high-income grocery spending, warns Bill Simon (cnbc.com)

In other real world news.

China consumption slows as retail sales and investment data disappoint

PUBLISHED THU, MAY 16 2024 10:01 PM EDT

BEIJING — China reported data Friday that pointed to slower growth on the consumer side while industrial activity remained robust.

Retail sales rose by 2.3% in April from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was less than the 3.8% increase forecast by a Reuters poll, and slower than the 3.1% pace reported in March.

Industrial production rose by 6.7% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for 5.5% growth. That was also a marked pickup from 4.5% in March.

But fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% for the first four months of the year, lower than the 4.6% expected increase.

Real estate investment steepened its pace of decline, and was down 9.8% year-on-year for the first four months of 2024.

Infrastructure and manufacturing investment during that time both slowed their pace slightly from the level reported as of March.

The urban unemployment rate in April was 5%. The bureau has previously said it would publish the breakdown by age in the days following the overall data release.

Retail sales grew by 6.8% year-on-year during a recent holiday period from April 29 to May 3, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.

The ministry said retail sales of home appliances rose by 7.9% during that time, while that of automobiles climbed by 4.8%, boosted by nationwide trade-in incentives.

“Major indicators of industry, exports, employment and prices improved overall, with new driving forces maintain[ing] rapid growth,” the bureau said.

Some consumers who are uncertain about their future income and other aspects will remain cautious about spending, said Bruce Pang at JLL.

China economy: April retail sales, industrial production, investment data (cnbc.com)

Finally, in more of, so you really, really, really want to own an EV. Volvo’s EV sales are collapsing.

With other EV manufacturers desperately cutting EV prices as sales collapse and EV inventory piles up, Volvo is paying the price of not joining in the price cutting war.

Tesla gets sued for a fiery EV crash.

Volvo’s US EV Sales Crater 69% In Q1

Can Volvo achieve its goal of going all-electric in 2030?

May 14, 2024 at 16:33

Volvo has ambitious plans to transition to all-electric vehicles by 2030, aiming for EVs to make up half of its global sales by 2025. However, 2024 has proven to be an abysmal year for its electric models in the States, with sales plummeting by a whopping 69 percent through April.

In the first four months of 2024, the automaker sold just 1,298 EVs to American buyers versus 4,138 the same period last year. This figure stands in contrast to the simultaneous 55 percent increase in sales of its plug-in hybrid models, totaling 10,124 units, and a 15 percent rise in overall sales from 36,094 in Q1 2023 to 41,555 in Q1 2024.

---- Currently, American shoppers have a limited selection of fully electric vehicles at Volvo dealerships: the XC40 Recharge and the C40 Recharge. Both are small crossovers that have garnered critical praise. However, they come with starting prices of $52,450 and $53,600, respectively before incentives.

That’s significantly more than the Tesla Model Y, which can be had from $44,990 this week, before any incentives. The American EV has had its price changed more times that we can remember in recent months, often dropping to lower levels, something the Swedish automaker has refused to do.

The company’s refusal to engage in a price war has left dealers in the U.S. feeling frustrated. They’re grappling with the challenge of selling these expensive compact crossovers at a time when MSRPs are a significant concern for shoppers. On the other hand, this means that Volvo maintains a 16 percent gross margin on each example it sells.

Volvo’s US EV Sales Crater 69% In Q1 | Carscoops

Wife of Tesla recruiter who was 3x drink-drive limit when autopilot car crashed in fireball sues company

May 12, 2024

The widow of a man who died after his Tesla veered off the road and crashed into a tree while he was using its partially automated driving system is suing the carmaker, claiming its marketing of the technology is dangerously misleading.

The Autopilot system prevented Hans Von Ohain from being able to keep his Model 3 Tesla on a Colorado road in 2022, according to the lawsuit filed by Nora Bass in state court on May 3. Von Ohain died after the car hit a tree and burst into flames, but a passenger was able to escape, the suit says.

Von Ohain was intoxicated at the time of the crash, according to a Colorado State Patrol report. He was three times the legal limit according to analysis of his blood-alcohol level in the autopsy report, according to the Denver Post.

The Associated Press sent an email to Tesla's communications department seeking comment on Friday.

Tesla offers two partially automated systems, Autopilot and a more sophisticated “Full Self Driving,” but the company says neither can drive itself, despite their names.

The lawsuit, which was also filed on behalf of the only child of Von Ohain and Bass, alleges that Tesla, facing financial pressures, released its Autopilot system before it was ready to be used in the real world. It also claims the company has had a “reckless disregard for consumer safety and truth," citing a 2016 promotional video.

Wife of Tesla recruiter who was 3x drink-drive limit when autopilot car crashed in fireball sues company (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Biden's big political problem: Inflation is now up nearly 20% since he took office

May 16, 2024

Inflation cooled slightly in April, but even the slower price increases revealed this week still added to a tally that is perhaps the Biden campaign's most intractable economic challenge in the 2024 campaign season.

Prices as measured by the seasonally-adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) are now up over 19.4% in the three-plus years since Biden took office.

Cumulative inflation has been a GOP focus for months, and that continued Wednesday as new data showed the tally inching ever closer to a psychologically significant milestone of 20%.

The Trump campaign didn't even wait for the threshold to be crossed Wednesday, with a statement from the campaign press secretary flatly stating "overall prices are up 20%."

Trump himself, as he is tends to do, exaggerated the numbers further and largely beyond recognition. In a video response to the inflation report, he said without offering any evidence that inflation "takes away 30 to 50 percent of every dollar you have."

President Biden himself reacted to the latest report with a statement calling costs his top economic priority while acknowledging that "even though we've made progress we have a lot more to do."

For comparison's sake, prices rose just under 7.8% during the 4 years of Donald Trump's presidency.

Economists often note that the differences between inflation in the two eras are due to a range of factors far beyond the Oval Office occupant.

Biden's big political problem: Inflation is now up nearly 20% since he took office (msn.com)

US Credit Card Debts Rise, More Americans Become Delinquent: NY Fed

The share of maxed-out credit card users is rising along with debt default rates.

5/16/2024 Updated: 5/16/2024

Credit card debts and delinquency rates among Americans increased in the first quarter of 2024, with newly delinquent individuals having a high median credit card utilization rate of 90 percent.

Household credit card debt in the United States rose by $129 billion over the past year, reaching $1.15 trillion as of Q1 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In Q1 2023, the share of credit card debt that was 90 days or more delinquent was 4.57 percent.

This jumped to 6.86 percent in Q1, 2024. The rate of credit card debts transitioning into “serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, the regional economic principal within the household and public policy research division at the New York Fed.

“An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”

In a May 14 post to Liberty Street Economics, New York Fed economists noted that a key factor “strongly correlated” to future defaults is the high utilization rate of credit cards. The aggregate credit card utilization rate was roughly 23 percent in the first quarter.

However, this varied based on users. Fifty-two percent of borrowers “were using less than 20 percent of their available credit in the first quarter, while 18 percent of borrowers were using at least 90 percent of their available credit.”

Borrowers who were “current” on their cards had a median utilization rate of only 13 percent. Those who became newly delinquent this year had a median utilization rate of 90 percent.

“This makes sense, since using practically all of your available credit could indicate a tight cash-flow situation,” according to the report, which noted that credit card utilization is a key input in credit scores used to determine the probability of defaulting in the future.

US Credit Card Debts Rise, More Americans Become Delinquent: NY Fed | The Epoch Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

AstraZeneca's COVID Vaccine Linked To Another Blood Clotting Disorder

May 16, 2024

Things seem to be going from bad to worse for AstraZeneca as a new study has claimed that its COVID-19 vaccine raises the risk of vaccine-induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (VITT) - a rare but fatal blood clotting disorder. The study, conducted by researchers at Flinders University in Australia, found the presence of PF4 antibodies, which were previously red-flagged by scientists from Canada, North America, Germany, and Italy in 2023.

"An unusually dangerous blood autoantibody directed against a protein termed platelet factor 4 (or PF4)" was identified as the reason for VITT.

They found that the PF4 antibodies in both adenovirus infection-associated VITT and classic adenoviral vector VITT share identical molecular fingerprints or signatures. "Indeed, the pathways of lethal antibody production in these disorders must be virtually identical and have similar genetic risk factors," said Professor Tom Gordon from Flinders.

The researcher noted that the "findings have important clinical implications, as lessons learned from VITT are applicable to rare cases of blood clotting after adenovirus (a common cold) infections, as well as having implications for vaccine development".

The findings come close on the heels of AstraZeneca admitting in a UK court that its COVID vaccine "can, in very rare cases, cause TTS".

AstraZeneca's COVID Vaccine Linked To Another Blood Clotting Disorder (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

The H Stands For Hype

The New York Times calls hydrogen a “renewable energy source” and other silliness about using an element that’s “a thermodynamic obscenity”

MAY 09, 2024

The Sun is mainly made of hydrogen. But there is nothing new under the Sun, and that includes hydrogen.

That Old Testament reference — “what has been will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun” — is appropriate here because the hype about hydrogen seems nearly as old as the Bible itself.

On June 10, 1975, during the 94th Congress, the House of Representatives held the first of two “investigative hearings on the subject of hydrogen — its production, utilization, and potential effects on our energy economy of the future.” The hearing was chaired by Mike McCormack, a Democrat from Washington state, who claimed hydrogen “has the potential of playing the same kind of role in our energy system as electricity does today.”

In 1996, the Chicago Sun-Times declared “The first steps toward what proponents call the hydrogen economy are being taken.” In 2003, Jeremy Rifkin, an “economic and social theorist,” published The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth. In that book, Rifkin claimed that “Globalization represents the end stage of the fossil-fuel era.” Turning “toward hydrogen is a promissory note for a safer world,” he averred.

---- Presentism helps explain why, on April 30, the New York Times published a piece headlined, “Hydrogen Offers Germany a Chance to Take a Lead in Green Energy,” which ignores the long history of hydrogen’s failure to live up to the forecasts. But blaming presentism can’t account for the vapidity of the article, which hinges on this nut graf:

The concept of hydrogen as a renewable energy source has been around for years, but only within the past decade has the idea of its potential to replace fossil fuels to power heavy industry taken off, leading to increased investment and advances in the technology. (Emphasis added.)

The idea of hydrogen may (or may not) be taking off, but hydrogen is not a “source” of energy, it’s an energy carrier. Calling hydrogen an energy “source” is like calling Stormy Daniels an “actress.”

Hydrogen is abundant in the universe. But it’s not a source of energy. Instead, like electricity and gasoline, it must be manufactured. The most common ways are by splitting water through electrolysis, or via steam-methane reforming, which uses high-pressure steam to produce hydrogen from methane.

There are other forehead-slapping statements in the Times article written by Stanley Reed and Melissa Eddy, who traveled to the German city of Duisburg to visit a factory that makes electrolyzers. “If adopted widely,” they wrote, “the devices could help clean up heavy industry such as steel-making, in Germany and elsewhere.” Well, yes, if “adopted widely.” But despite decades of frothy predictions from Rifkin and others, electrolyzers haven’t been adopted widely because making and using hydrogen on a large scale is — as my friend, Steve Brick, puts it — “a thermodynamic obscenity.”

Reed and Eddy ignore the energy intensity of making hydrogen, only offering that by using “electricity to split water” the electrolyzer “produces hydrogen, a carbon-free gas that could help power mills like the one in Duisburg.” That’s true. But how much electricity is needed? And where the heck is German industry, which is already being hammered by expensive gas and power, going to get the juice? At what cost? Those questions are not addressed.

To be clear, lots of other media outlets are hyping hydrogen. And the hype is surging because of fat government subsidies.

---- Regardless of tax credits and subsidies, making and using hydrogen is a high-entropy, high-cost process. As a friend in the oil refining business told me last year, “If you like $6-per-gallon gasoline, you’re gonna love $14-to-$20-per-gallon hydrogen.”

As for Brick’s “thermodynamic obscenity” line, the numbers — which I’ll examine in a moment — are easy to understand. Hydrogen is insanely expensive, in energy terms, to manufacture. It takes about three units of energy, in the form of electricity, to produce two units of hydrogen energy. In other words, the hydrogen economy requires scads of electricity (a high quality form of energy) to make a tiny molecule that’s hard to handle, difficult to store, and expensive to use.

The H Stands For Hype - Robert Bryce (substack.com)